AKA: government confidence, governance, mood of the nation, quality of life
Key notes
- The net direction score is calculated by right direction % - wrong direction %, and we average this across the 4 polling companies that have done this over time. Not every polling company does this over election or Christmas break months, or even keeps it going between election years, so, sometimes, there are only 2, or even 1, data points for each month. See below for more information.
- Unlike the previous KPIs, which are harder quantitative data sets, the country direction score is based on polling human feelings.
- Remember that each Labour-led or National-led government has had coalition partners which share the successes, and the failures, with them. A full list of governments for this time range are at the bottom of this page.
Data sources
Data shown:
- Net direction, as explained above.
- September 1991 onwards as that is when Talbot Mills started this measure. Roy Morgan started in August 2007. Curia started in January 2021. Essential did 4 months from August to November 2023.
Data not shown:
- The Post Freshwater Strategy = appears to be a one-off poll pe ryear, and the full methodology is behind a paywall.
- Talbot Mills data from November 2023 onwards = for private clients only, but it is sometimes leaked. We have asked them if we can also include this data, and will if we can have a continuous set of months. We can't show selective leaked months as they may have been leaked due to a more favourable result in those months for their client (the Labour Party).
Full data:
Frequency:
- Monthly for Roy Morgan
- Bi-monthly (usually) for Taxpayer's Union Curia.
- Monthly for Talbot Mills (but that data is not public).
- Essential is no longer doing this polling
Released:
- 2.5 weeks for Roy Morgan.
- 1 week for Taxpayer's Union Curia.
- There are often delays over Christmas.
Last update:
- Curia = 9 December (Dec result)
- Roy Morgan = 3 December (Nov result)
- Talbot Mills = 1 Feb 2024 (Sep 1991 to Oct 2023 results)
- Essential = 15 Nov 2023
Next update:
- Roy Morgan = early/mid-Jan
- Curia = Jan/Feb (they are bi-monthly at present)
- Talbot Mills = unsure if we can access this. We have asked.
- Essential = unsure if it will start again
Why this KPI?
- While the other KPIs address specific issue areas within society, country direction/Government confidence is arguably the best overall measure of how a country thinks it’s going.
- This is why we put it last to finish with an overall score, but we don’t give it an issue ranking number, e.g. 1-10, since it can’t be specifically tested or ranked versus specific issues.
Discarded
None
Related facts
Wishlist
- Field dates for all historic months
- Scatter graph with trend line
- Recent Talbot Mills releases
With support, we’ll also be able to add multiple KPIs for each issue:
- Updates on many of KPIs listed above.
- Other confidence scores:
- Trust of the Government
- Rating of Government policies overall
Governments over the timeframe shown
- 1999 = Labour/Alliance + Green
2002 = Labour/Progressive + United
2005 = Labour/Progressive + United, NZ First
- 2008 = National + ACT, United, Māori
2011 = National + ACT, United, Māori
2014 = National + ACT, United, Māori
- 2017 = Labour/NZ First + Green
2020 = Labour + Green
- 2023 = National/ACT/NZ First
Sources:1,2 (table 5).
© Roy Morgan
© Curia
© Talbot Mills
© Essential
Republished with permission
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