OVERALL PERCEPTION

AKA: government confidence, governance, mood of the nation, quality of life

What this graph shows

• Net direction = the % of respondents believing New Zealand is heading in the right direction - the % that believe we are heading in the wrong direction.
• The monthly average across polling companies reporting results for that month. Each pollster is weighted equally.
• September 1991 onwards as that is when Talbot Mills started this measure. Roy Morgan started in August 2007. Curia started in January 2021. Essential did 4 months from August to November 2023.

Key notes

• Not every polling company does this over the Christmas break, or even keeps it going between election windows, so, sometimes, there are only 2, or even 1, data points for each month. See below for more information.
• Other pollsters, like Talbot Mills, Reid, Kantar, and Freshwater Strategy, either don't consistently measure Country Direction, don't make their results publicly available, or are too infrequent or unpredictable to be of practical use. Talbot Mills is included where historical data has been supplied, but more recent results are not publicly available. We don't use one-off "leaked" polling results, as they can be leaked for political reasons, and we need to see the official research report to validate the quality of the data.
• Unlike the previous KPIs, which are harder quantitative data sets, the country direction score is based on polling human feelings and perceptions.
• External factors can influence these results, and context is important, but governments are ultimately accountable for New Zealand's performance.
• Remember that each Labour-led or National-led government has had coalition and support partners which share the successes, and the failures, with them. A full list of governments for this time range are at the bottom of this page.

Data sources

• Roy Morgan = a private Excel file we were emailed + monthly PDF polling releases + https://www.roymorgan.com/findings?types=political
• Taxpayers’ Union Curia = their paywalled ‘Caucus Members’ Polling Report + sometimes shown on https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/pollingarchive. NOTE: The December 2023 and January 2024 polling was done by Curia independently outside of their work for the Taxpayers' Union.
• Talbot Mills = a private Excel file we were emailed.
• Guardian Essential = https://essentialreport.co.nz/ [1st question, website since taken down]
• Crosscheck summary = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election#:~:text=46-,Government%20approval%20rating,-%5Bedit%5D and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election.

Data timing

Frequency:

• Monthly for Roy Morgan
• Monthly for Taxpayers' Union Curia (has been bi-monthly at times).
• Monthly for Talbot Mills (but that data is not public).
• Essential is no longer doing this polling

Released:

• 2 weeks for Roy Morgan.
• 2 days for Taxpayers' Union Curia.
• There are often delays over Christmas.

Last update:

• Curia = 4 Nov (Oct 31 midpoint)
• Roy Morgan = 4 Nov (Nov result)
• Talbot Mills = 1 Feb 2024 (Sep 1991 to Oct 2023 results)
• Essential = 15 Nov 2023

Next update:

• Curia = early December (but might take a break post election)
• Roy Morgan = early December
• Talbot Mills = not publicly released

Why this KPI?

• While the other KPIs address specific issue areas within society, country direction/government confidence is arguably the best overall measure of how a country thinks it’s going.
• It is also widely regarded as the best indicator of how an election will go.
• This is why we put it last to finish with an overall score, but we don’t give it an issue ranking number, e.g. 1-10, since it can’t be specifically tested or ranked versus specific issues.
  

Related facts

Some of these articles contain historical data and analysis that may not have been updated since publication. Please check the dates when interpreting the findings.

• See also: Social Unity

Wishlist

• Field dates for all historic months
• Scatter graph with trend line
• Recent Talbot Mills releases

With support, we’ll also be able to add multiple KPIs for each issue:

• Updates on many of the KPIs listed above.
• Other confidence scores:
  • Consumer
  • Business
  • Rural
• Trust of the Government
• Rating of Government policies overall

Governments over the timeframe shown

• 1990 = National
  1993 = National*
  1996 = National/NZ First*
  
• 1999 = Labour/Alliance + Green
  2002 = Labour/Progressive + United
  2005 = Labour/Progressive + United, NZ First
  
  
• 2008 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  2011 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  2014 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  
  
• 2017 = Labour/NZ First + Green
  2020 = Labour + Green
  
  
• 2023 = National/ACT/NZ First

* National remained in government from 1993–1999 despite MP defections and changing governing arrangements. Its coalition with NZ First, formed after the first MMP election in 1996, collapsed in August 1998.

/ = Coalition partners
+ = Other formal governing agreements, including confidence and supply, support and cooperation.

Sources:1,2 (table 5).

© Copyright

© Roy Morgan
© Curia
© Talbot Mills
© Essential
Republished with permission

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