ISSUE #10: Immigration

AKA: net migration, immigration, emigration, population growth

What this graph shows

• Annual net migration to New Zealand (migrant arrivals minus migrant departures), from Stats NZ.
• The graph combines two historical measures:
• 1860–2000: Permanent and long-term migration, based on travellers' stated intentions.

• 2001 onwards: Estimated migration, based on actual travel patterns using the 12/16-month rule.
• The change in methodology means figures before and after 2001 are not directly comparable but have been included to showcase important historical benchmarks. Stats NZ also combines the data sets in this way.
• We’ve started the graph in 1936, as the First Labour Government took power on 6 December 1935 (the First National Government after that on 13 December 1949).

2026 data is for the 8 months to the end of August, multiplied by 1.5 to provide an approximate full-year figure. It is drawn with a dotted line and marked "est." in the tooltip. This could be affected by seasonality or other factors, but we believe an estimate based on two-thirds of the year is more useful than showing no figure at all for 2026.

Key notes

Recent migration figures are provisional and subject to revision as Stats NZ obtains more information about travellers' movements.

• The other main contributor to population growth is natural increase (births minus deaths).
• External factors can also influence these immigration results, and context is important, but governments are ultimately accountable for New Zealand's performance.

Remember that each Labour-led or National-led government has had coalition partners that share in their successes and failures. A full list of governments for this 91-year time range is available here.

Why this KPI?

• When someone answers that “immigration” is a top issue for them, we get no further context, but can infer from anecdotal evidence and qualitative research, that the main drivers of immigration concern are:
• Infrastructure – pressure on housing, schooling, hospitals, roading, and other public assets.

• Social cohesion – voluntary integration vs voluntary segregation, language and communication, culture

• Safety – terrorism in particular

• Economic – loss of job opportunities, or suppression of wages. For some, not enough immigration to fulfil roles. For others, loss of skilled New Zealanders overseas (the brain drain).
• Net migration is good indicator of population pressure on general infrastructure, and also economic labour supply.
• Arrivals (immigrants) and departures (emigrants) are interesting measures, but don’t actually tell us enough to get a true read on their impact, for better or worse, on social cohesion, safety, or even economic impacts. For that, we would need to do much deeper analysis into who is arriving and departing, where they settle or move to, and their actual impacts on society. Much of this data isn’t even available. However, one thing we do know is that Asian and Indian ethnic groups commit far lower crimes, on average, than other Kiwi ethnicities.
  
  

Data sources

1. 1936-2000 = www.infoshare.govt.nz > Browse > Tourism > International Travel and Migration – ITM > Permanent & long-term migration key series (Annual-Dec) [Select Net, TOTAL ALL COUNTRIES OF RESIDENCE, and TOTAL ALL CITIZENSHIPS]
2. 2001-2025 = www.infoshare.govt.nz > Browse > Tourism > International Travel and Migration – ITM > Estimated migration by direction, 12/16-month rule (Annual Dec) [Select Net and Estimate]
3. 2026 = www.infoshare.govt.nz > Browse > Tourism > International Travel and Migration – ITM > Estimated migration by direction, 12/16-month rule (Monthly) [Select all months in the year to date]

Data timing

• Frequency: Monthly (annual totals shown)
• Update delay: 1.5 months
• Last update: August 2026 = 14 October 2026
• Next update: September 2026 = 12 November 2026
  
  

Related facts

Some of these articles contain historical data and analysis that may not have been updated since publication. Please check the dates when interpreting the findings.

• Net births and deaths, and net migration, over 70 years
  
  

Wishlist

• Updating immigration's contribution to population growth relative to natural increase
• Correlation between net migration and housing affordability
• Migrant arrivals and departures by age, skills and occupation.
• Net migration by region

Net migration as a percentage of population, to compare the relative scale of migration across different eras.

Governments over the timeframe shown

See First Labour Government took power on 6 December 1935

Copyright

Data published by Stats NZ
© Crown Copyright
Licensed for use under the creative commons attribution licence (BY) 4.0

Analysis and graphics © KPI.nz 2026. Please share widely! You're welcome to reproduce our work with attribution and a link to the original post.

Corrections & suggestions

We welcome corrections, additional sources and suggestions for improving this KPI. Please use the comments or contact us.