Key notes
- We have chosen quarterly % change over an annual figure since quarterly is used to measure recessions and is a better representation of economic volatility.
- External events like the GFC (Global Financial Crisis), earthquakes, floods, and COVID-19 can have a significant impact on GDP. The Covid limitation and lockdown rules that began on 19 March 2020 nationwide and the final lockdown that ended on 15 December 2021 in Auckland, obviously had a significant impact on GDP for some of this timeframe. Some argue that these were necessary and appropriate measures. Some believe that they weren't aggressive enough. And some believe that they shouldn't have happened, were too harsh, or went on too long. Context and judgments like this are subjective, so they are impossible to show in a graph. It is up to each reader to evaluate the proportion of responsibility they place on each government over the timeframe shown, versus factors outside of their control.
- Some argue that the convention of a recession being two-quarters of successive GDP decline is not a good metric of a recession. Others believe it is a useful standard to set an expectation of growth, and to hold governments to account.
- Remember that each Labour-led or National-led government has had coalition partners that share the successes, and the failures, with them. A full list of governments for this time range is at the bottom of this page.
- You can toggle the recession lines on and off by clicking on 'Per Capita Recession' in the legend underneath the graphic.
Data sources
Data shown:
- Quarterly % change in GDP per capita.
- 1991 Q1 onwards is when Stats NZ started the GDP per capita data series
(the GDP data series started in 1987 Q2).
- Per capita recessions. A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of decline. We have highlighted both the 2nd month and 1st month of those declines since they both contribute towards the definition of a recession.
Full data:
- GDP per capita = infoshare.stats.govt.nz > Browse > Economic indicators > National Accounts - SNA 2008 - SNE > Series, Per capita measure, Chain volume, Seasonally adjusted, Total (Qrtly-Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec) [Select ‘Gross Domestic Product - production measure’]
- GDP (for determining GDP recessions) = infoshare.stats.govt.nz > Browse > Economic indicators > National Accounts - SNA 2008 - SNE > Series, GDP (P), Chain volume, Seasonally adjusted, Total (Qrtly-Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec)
Frequency:
Updated:
- 2.5 month delay after the March/June/September/December quarters end
Last update:
- 2024 Q3 = 19 December 2024
Next update:
Why this KPI?
- The metric used most by politicians, government organisations, economists, and media when talking about the economy is GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which measures the size of the economy.
- Oxford definitions:
- GDP = the total value of all the goods and services produced by a country in one year (the abbreviation for ‘gross domestic product’)
- Quarterly GDP figures are also used to determine if the economy is in a recession, or not. 2 quarters of declining GDP (negative growth) = recession. This is why we have shown quarterly % change figures. On our wishlist is to also work out the most elegant way to show annual figures.
- When the entities above talk about ‘GDP’, they are meaning ‘Real GDP’ which adjusts the figures for inflation so that we can compare between different time periods, e.g. it adjusts all figures into 2009/10 prices.
- HOWEVER, Real GDP (known as just GDP for short) does NOT take population growth into account. As such, it does not accurately measure the impact of economic growth or recessions on individual households and is not a true reflection of productivity relative to inputs (humans and financial capital available).
- These 2 obstacles are solved by using GDP per capita which takes population changes into account, which is why we have used it for this Economy issue area.
- Given New Zealand’s population growth, over recent decades especially, we would like to see all politicians, government organisations, economists, and media lead with GDP per capita first, and GDP second.
Related facts
Wishlist
With support, we’ll be able to add multiple KPIs for each issue:
- Updates on many of KPIs listed above.
- Our own:
- Productivity
- GDP Per Capita vs Comparable Countries (USD, maybe PPP)
- GDP Per Capita Per Hour Worked vs Comparable Countries (USD, maybe PPP)
- Average Hours Worked
- GDP Relative to Capital Employed
- Capacity Utilisation
- Manufacturing PMI (Performance of Manufacturing Index)
- Employment
- Employment Rate
- Underutilisation Rate
- Job Listings
- Job security
- Job flexibility
- Strikes
- Business KPIs
- Births & Deaths (older data here)
- Business Profitability
- Business Cash Flow
- Debtor Days
- Business Growth
- Perceptions of government support for businesses
- Other growth metrics:
- Vehicle Registrations
- Retail Sales
- Credit Card Transactions
- Tourism Numbers
- Confidence scores:
- Business
- Consumer
- Rural (older data here)
- GNDI (Gross National Disposable Income) (AKA Real earnings after tax)
Discarded
Unemployment Rate
- Unfortunately, we have discovered that this formula has a major flaw. If you work for just 1 hour per week, for free, mowing a friend’s lawn, you are considered 100% employed, not 2.5% employed (1/40) and 97.5% unemployed (39/40). There is no weighting, only a binary classification whereby 1 hour of work is considered employed for the week.
- It uses a 30-hour, not the traditional 40-hour workweek, which is debatable, especially given how many Kiwis work more than 40 hours too. 35 hours is also an option.
- Multiple people have contacted saying that some unemployed are being moved across to sickness benefits to hide the true unemployment rate. This might not be true. We will investigate this as resources allow, but it does erode our confidence hearing many stories like this.
- If the unemployment rate has always been done in this same consistent way, then it is a useful relative/comparison metric over time. However, we do not have enough confidence that it shows the true unemployment rate in New Zealand.
Crown Gross Debt.
- Crown Net Debt feels like the better measure.
Governments over the timeframe shown
- 1990 = National
1993 = National*
1996 = National/NZ First*
- 1999 = Labour/Alliance + Green
2002 = Labour/Progressive + United
2005 = Labour/Progressive + United, NZ First
- 2008 = National + ACT, United, Māori
2011 = National + ACT, United, Māori
2014 = National + ACT, United, Māori
- 2017 = Labour/NZ First + Green
2020 = Labour + Green
Sources:1,2 (table 5)
Data published by Stats NZ
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