ISSUE #3: Economy

What this graph shows

• Quarterly % change in GDP per capita.
• 1991 Q1 onwards is when Stats NZ started the GDP per capita data series (the GDP data series started in 1987 Q2).
• Per capita recessions. A recession is conventionally defined as 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP. We have applied the same definition to GDP per capita. However, rather than highlighting only the second quarter as a recession, we have highlighted both the first and second quarters of decline, since both contribute towards the definition of a recession.

Key notes

• We have chosen quarterly % change over an annual figure since quarterly is:
  1. used to measure recessions, and
  2. a better representation of economic volatility.
• Some argue that the convention of a recession being two-quarters of successive GDP decline is not a good metric of a recession. Others believe it is a useful standard to set an expectation of growth, and to hold governments to account.
• External events like the GFC (Global Financial Crisis), earthquakes, floods, and COVID-19 can have a significant impact on GDP. The Covid limitation and lockdown rules that began on 19 March 2020 nationwide and the final lockdown that ended on 15 December 2021 in Auckland, obviously had a significant impact on GDP for some of this timeframe. Some argue that these were necessary and appropriate measures. Some believe that they weren't aggressive enough. And some believe that they shouldn't have happened, were too harsh, or went on too long. Context and judgments like this are subjective, so they are impossible to show in a graph. It is up to each reader to evaluate the proportion of responsibility they place on each government over the timeframe shown, versus factors outside of their control. External factors and context are important, but governments are ultimately accountable for New Zealand's performance.
• Remember that each Labour-led or National-led government has had coalition partners that share in their successes and failures. A full list of governments for this time range is at the bottom of this page.
• You can toggle the recession lines on and off by clicking on 'Per Capita Recession' in the legend underneath the graphic.

Why this KPI?

• The metric used most by politicians, government organisations, economists, and media when talking about the economy is GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which measures the size of the economy.
• Oxford definitions:
  • GDP = the total value of all the goods and services produced by a country in one year (the abbreviation for ‘gross domestic product’)
• Quarterly GDP figures are also used to determine if the economy is in a recession, or not. 2 quarters of declining GDP (negative growth) = recession. This is why we have shown quarterly % change figures. On our wishlist is to also work out the most elegant way to show annual figures on the same graph.
• When the entities above talk about ‘GDP’, they are meaning ‘Real GDP’ which adjusts the figures for inflation so that we can compare between different time periods, e.g. it adjusts all figures into 2009/10 prices.
• HOWEVER, Real GDP (known as just GDP for short) does NOT take population growth into account. As such, it does not accurately measure the impact of economic growth or recessions on individual households and does not show how much economic output is being produced per person.
• These 2 obstacles are solved by using GDP per capita which takes population changes into account, which is why we have used it for this Economy issue area.
• Given New Zealand’s population growth, over recent decades especially, we would like to see all politicians, government organisations, economists, and media lead with GDP per capita first, and GDP second.

Data sources

Shown:

• GDP per capita = infoshare.stats.govt.nz > Browse > Economic indicators > National Accounts - SNA 2008 - SNE > Series, Per capita measure, Chain volume, Seasonally adjusted, Total (Qrtly-Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec) [Select ‘Gross Domestic Product - production measure’]

Not shown:

• GDP (for determining GDP recessions) = infoshare.stats.govt.nz > Browse > Economic indicators > National Accounts - SNA 2008 - SNE > Series, GDP (P), Chain volume, Seasonally adjusted, Total (Qrtly-Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec)

Data timing

• Frequency: Quarterly
• Update delay: 2.5 months after the March/June/September/December quarters end
• Last update: 2026 Q2 = 17 September 2026
• Next update: 2026 Q3 = 17 December 2026

Related facts

Current

• Cost of Living/Inflation KPI
• Government debt 2026

Older

• GDP vs GDP Per Capita (older data also here)
• Core Crown Tax Revenue vs Core Crown Expenses
• Core Crown Expenses By Class
• Current Account
• Crown Surplus/Deficit (OBEGAL)
• Crown (Government) Debt
• Core Crown Finance Costs
• Employee Leave Allowances
• Business Survival Rates
• Also see:
  • Cost of living
    • Tradeable vs non-tradable inflation
    • Inflation - 1925 Q4 to 2002 Q2
  • Housing
  • Poverty
  • Taxes
    • Income Tax by Earnings Bracket
    • Income Tax Distribution

Wishlist

With support, we’ll be able to add multiple KPIs for each issue:

• Updates on many of KPIs listed above.
• Our own:
  • True unemployment rate.
  • Our own true inflation metric.
    See kpi.nz/wishlist.
• Productivity
  • GDP Per Capita vs Comparable Countries (USD, maybe PPP)
  • GDP Per Capita Per Hour Worked vs Comparable Countries (USD, maybe PPP)
  • Average Hours Worked
  • GDP Relative to Capital Employed
  • Capacity Utilisation
  • Manufacturing PMI (Performance of Manufacturing Index)
• Employment
  • Employment Rate
  • Underutilisation Rate
  • Job Listings
  • Job security
  • Job flexibility
  • Strikes
• Business KPIs
  • Births & Deaths (older data here)
  • Business Profitability
  • Business Cash Flow
  • Debtor Days
  • Business Growth
  • Perceptions of government support for businesses
• Other growth metrics:
  • Vehicle Registrations
  • Retail Sales
  • Credit Card Transactions
  • Tourism Numbers
• Confidence scores:
  • Business
  • Consumer
  • Rural (older data here)
• GNDI (Gross National Disposable Income) (AKA Real earnings after tax)

Discarded

Unemployment Rate

• Unfortunately, we have discovered that this formula has several major flaws. See https://kpi.nz/kpi/adults-on-a-main-benefit for more detail.

Crown Gross Debt.

• Net core Crown debt is a better measure.

Governments over the timeframe shown

• 1990 = National
  1993 = National*
  1996 = National/NZ First*
  
  
• 1999 = Labour/Alliance + Green
  2002 = Labour/Progressive + United
  2005 = Labour/Progressive + United, NZ First
  
  
• 2008 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  2011 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  2014 = National + ACT, United, Māori
  
  
• 2017 = Labour/NZ First + Green
  2020 = Labour + Green

• 2023 = National/ACT/NZ First

* National remained in government from 1993–1999 despite MP defections and changing governing arrangements. Its coalition with NZ First, formed after the first MMP election in 1996, collapsed in August 1998.
/ = Coalition partners
+ = Other formal governing agreements, including confidence and supply, support and cooperation.

Sources:1,2 (table 5)

© Copyright

Data published by Stats NZ
© Crown Copyright
Licensed for use under the creative commons attribution licence (BY) 4.0

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